4/28/24: No commentary Wed-Friday last week as we were short handed in the office with a few people travelling for work.  Randy was a one-man merchandising machine though so you may not have noticed as he handled it with ease.  It was poor timing though given that the market moved aggressively higher on dryness in Russia, Australia, and key parts of Kansas.  The key to us is the dryness in Russia.  Russian crop was projected around 90 million metric tons for the upcoming crop year.  Prior to these dryness concerns there were rumblings that it could push 100 million metric tons.  So, the 90 million metric marker feels important moving forward.  If dryness continues and we start to see projections fade back into the 80s firmness should continue.  The smaller Russia’s crop can get the better chance we have at some added US exports.  Some Euro models show portions of Russia and Ukraine getting good moisture over the next two weeks which would likely stabilize the crop if realized and take the winds out of the rally.  Forecasts to end the week showed better chances for moisture in US wheat areas as well over the next 5 days.  Last week Kansas City and Chicago futures rallied 70+ cents while spring wheat played follower moving 50+ cents.  The rally was met with strong farmer selling throughout the country for both old and new crop wheat.  It is important to remember the surpluses we had going into this rally, and how good conditions were to begin the spring.  We are of the opinion that this rally and firmness can easily continue as we tend to overdue dryness concerns/weather markets.   Funds have been short as well, so the ammunition is there if dryness continues for things to keep pushing higher.  BUT it does feel a lot like the dryness and weather concerns we experienced last year with US corn.  Corn rallied a $1 per bu on way to early June dryness concerns, then proceeded to lose $2 per bu from July on.  Fundamentally US wheat faces a major uphill battle over the next year and until we see a change in demand structure it will be hard to trust these rallies.  Advise to continue to sell wheat into them.  Wheat exports for the week totaled 454K MT, majority new crop sales, spring wheat made up 144K of it and SWW 150K.  Corn exports were strong at 1,562K combined old and new crop.  Beat expectations with the main buyers being Mexico South Korea Japan and Saudi Arabia.  Soybean exports were poor at 331K combined old and new crop, barely above the low end of expectations. 

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